The Land of Rice Balls… With No Rice?

When you think of Japan, there’s an 8 out of 10 chance that you automatically think about their Japanese cuisine: sushi, sashimi, anburi, and their different types of don. When it comes to food, Japan and rice are inseparable, iconic, and absolutely essential, much like Chanel and their pearls — two entities that go together like hand and glove. Now, imagine a world where Japan — the land of rice balls and rituals — starts running low on rice. Shocking? It’s not a hypothetical anymore. It’s happening and only getting worse, starting from late 2023 due to a smaller and poorer-quality harvest that fall. Demand for the grain is exceeding its supply, prices are skyrocketing, and the country is taking rare steps to turn to imports and its emergency stockpile. This political turmoil is what is causing Japanese restaurants to stop offering free rice refills, as Japanese tourists are buying rice from other Asian countries, and bags of rice in grocery stores are disappearing; many stores are limiting each customer to one bag. Inflation has caused the cost of an 11-pound rice bag to average about $30, including tax, which is more than double the price during the same period last year (Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture).

The situation worsens for Japan, as an increase in rice imports could leave agricultural farmers vulnerable to competition. In early February of this year, rice imports coming from private companies exceeded 551 tons — this exceeds the fiscal volume in 2023, according to the country’s Ministry of Agriculture. On the contrary, South Korea’s national agriculture cooperative confirmed earlier in the last week of April that they planned to export 24 tons of rice to Japan, “the largest shipment in the last 25 years” (Chie Tanaka and Michelle Ye Hee Lee, The Washington Post). These imports account for only a small percentage of the nationwide rice consumption, which is estimated at 7.8 million tons. Over the past few years, there has been a significant increase in tourists from all over the world, many of whom were unable to enter in previous years due to COVID-19, driving up nationwide rice consumption numbers.

Not only have tourists worsened the nationwide rice consumption numbers, but also there was a time, in late August last year, when the government issued a 7.1 magnitude earthquake warning. It was the first warning for a “megaquake,” and this panicked civilians into panic-purchasing rice in preparation for this natural disaster. Seeing how easy it is for demand and supply imbalance to spike, the government has been trying, in recent years, to encourage farmers to move away from rice crops by subsidizing them to switch to other diverse crops, as they noticed a pattern that by making demand and supply tight, hiking prices and shortages were inevitable (Nobuhiro Suzuki, a professor of agricultural economics at Tokyo University). He elaborates on this point by saying, “The real root of the issue lies in what I’d call a policy failure — cutting production too much and leaving farmers unable or unwilling to grow rice, without doing anything about it… That’s why it escalated into such a major problem.” “‘Japan’s strategy has always been to produce the amount that meets the demand,’” said a Ministry of Agriculture spokesman, entailing that there is no official move to increase domestic production despite the politically sensitive shortage. Many times, the government says in response that “the rice [goes] ‘missing’ along the supply chain stems largely from distributors hoarding rice as a speculative measure.”

Without any action being taken, wholesale market prices are likely to worsen from here, and this is only going to restrain retailers further. Owner Kazuo Kurihara, 86, said he used to purchase rice directly from farmers, but his contract ran out, so he can no longer buy from them. Then, he has to resort to buying from wholesalers, who said that their prices keep on going up day by day. In response to this, Eto, the agriculture minister, said, “Even though we are releasing rice from government stockpiles, retail prices are not falling.” Residents are growing frustrated, as one, Naoko Nakayama, a 46-year-old mother of one who was shopping at a Tokyo grocery store this week, said she would be willing to accept the rising prices if it meant that farmers could get higher pay. Still, she feels frustrated that policymakers have no clear solution on how to address the shortage for customers or help farmers. On the other hand, in the near future, it appears that Japan has been considering expanding imports from the United States and reducing its tariffs on rice imports as part of the negotiations regarding Donald Trump’s tariffs. I’m hoping to see what comes next and what Japan will do long-term because this all seems to be a short-term solution right now.