Thailand at the Polls: The People’s Party’s Bid for Power

Image from Brookings Institution

Politics in Thailand has never been short on drama. From the coups of the past to the courtrooms of today, the country seems to have a knack for turning governance into a theatre of power struggles. And this week, the curtain fell hard on Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. On September 29th, the People’s Party, Thailand’s largest political bloc with 143 seats—nearly 30% of the lower house of parliament that chooses the prime minister—made its move. They demanded a general election within four months, arguing that Paetongtarn had mishandled delicate relations with Cambodia and, by extension, the national interest.

At the heart of the storm is a single phone call. Not a high-level diplomatic negotiation, not a trade agreement, but a private conversation between Paetongtarn and Hun Sen, Cambodia’s former prime minister and now Senate president. Hun Sen isn’t just any foreign politician; he’s a longtime ally of Paetongtarn’s father, Thaksin Shinawatra, whose shadow looms large over Thai politics. When the call leaked, what might have been brushed off elsewhere became, in Thailand, a scandal. Paetongtarn’s critics argued that she had chosen personal ties over the nation’s pride. The Constitutional Court agreed, declaring that she had committed a cultural offence and prioritized her own agenda over the people she was elected to serve. By Friday, the ruling was handed down: Paetongtarn was out.

The People’s Party framed its push not just as punishment for one phone call but as a necessary step toward economic reform. For them, Paetongtarn’s removal is an opportunity to reset the country’s priorities. It’s also a classic political maneuver: use the language of reform to mask a raw power struggle. With momentum on their side, the People’s Party has been quick to position itself as the vehicle of change, the antidote to what they paint as the Shinawatra family’s endless cycle of controversy.

Meanwhile, the country is technically still under the control of the incumbent ruling coalition, a patchwork of parties that teamed up to govern together. But the cracks are already showing. By law, parliament must convene within a week to choose a successor. The Pheu Thai Party, Paetongtarn’s own base, wants desperately to hold on. Yet the very coalition it leads is starting to splinter. The Kla Tham Party, with its 26 seats, was conspicuously absent from a recent meeting. For a coalition that needs every headcount, this silence speaks volumes.

On the other side, the People’s Party has absorbed Bhumjaithai into its bloc. But here’s the twist: they’re not doing it to form a traditional coalition. Instead, they’re deliberately holding off on unifying, using the alliance as leverage to demand fresh elections and deeper reforms. It’s a tactical gamble—one that could either catapult them into lasting power or leave the country in yet another round of political paralysis.

Thailand has been here before. Leaders rise, only to be toppled by the very institutions meant to protect democracy. Court rulings and coalition defections are as much a part of Thai politics as campaign rallies. And yet, each time it happens, the stakes feel higher. This latest episode raises uncomfortable questions: How much of Thailand’s political destiny is shaped by voters, and how much by courts and coalitions behind closed doors? Can a country chart a stable economic future when its leadership is perpetually on trial—literally and figuratively?

Paetongtarn Shinawatra being ousted is more than the fall of a young, high-profile prime minister. It’s a reminder that in Thailand, politics is never just about policies. It’s about personalities, power blocs, and the perception of loyalty—whether to the people, the military, or the nation itself. For now, the ruling coalition clings to power, the People’s Party rallies for reform, and parliament prepares for its next act. But if there’s one thing Thai politics guarantees, it’s this: the drama isn’t over. In fact, it may have only just begun.