Checkers in a Chess Game: Trump, Tariffs, and his two biggest allies, South Korea and Japan

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Monday holds up a copy of President Donald Trump's letter to Japan announcing 25 percent tariffs. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

I couldn’t help but wonder... When did trade policy start feeling like a reality TV cliffhanger? One minute it’s diplomacy, the next it’s tariffs, and Japan and South Korea are suddenly the main characters in Trump’s latest plot twist. The last time we discussed tariffs on this blog was in May of this year, but yet again, Trump seems to be seeking to stir up drama to get the most out of his trading partners. Like Heo Yoon, the chairman of South Korea’s National Trade Policy Advisory Council and an economics professor at the Sogang University Graduate School of International Studies, said, “Trump weaponized his unpredictability, but now he’s quite predictable about his unpredictability.”

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This quote stuck with me because I couldn’t help but wonder… when your biggest allies are holding the shield for you, why would you light the fire and stab them in the back? As Trump threatens another wave of tariffs on Japan and South Korea, it feels less like foreign policy and more like self-sabotage in stilettos. This so-called “unpredictability” used to be “strategic ambiguity,” but now it seems more like strategic stupidity dressed up in a red tie. It’s not 4D chess. It’s just checkers… played badly. Why would you play with fire with one of your biggest allies that is quite literally helping you fight dependence on China? And it doesn’t stop there; not only does he come with threats, but he also presents political demands to many other countries. But the shade is crazy, as Japan and South Korea were the first two recipients of these letters. Trump demands that his demands be met or negotiations be conducted on his terms by August 1st; otherwise, he will impose the promised tariffs on all Asian countries. If not — they would face a 25 percent tariff rate — up one percentage point for Japan, and the same rate for South Korea as the levies announced in April.

In response, Itsunori Onodera, policy chief for Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, said, “The content is entirely unacceptable… To notify a key ally with nothing more than a single letter is extremely disrespectful, and I feel a strong sense of indignation.” On top of this, Donald Trump seems to dismiss their feelings and went on at a press conference on July 7th, starting to call both South Korea and Japan “spoiled,” and that they have always been getting their needs met for the past few decades. All this makes Japan question, “‘Is this how you treat the allies?’ is the question we have,” said Tokuko Shironitta, Japan country director at the Asia Group, a consultancy. I believe that bringing these threats to the table at this time is somewhat insensitive, given the political constraints that Tokyo and Seoul are currently facing. This contributes to most of the reasons why negotiations between the two nations have been moving more slowly than the U.S. had demanded. Japan’s July 20 upper house election could threaten Ishiba’s standing as the prime minister, which limits his ability to forge deals on politically sensitive issues, such as the rice shortage. Meanwhile, a new administration is just starting to find its footing after a whirlwind presidential campaign in April and May, right as trade talks were getting underway. The three-week extension came as a relief for the president, as he acknowledged last week that it would be “difficult” for Seoul to decide by Aug. 1. Heo acknowledges Trump’s move as a way to make an example out of them — the United States’ two Asian allies — to pressure other countries, despite the two capitals being critical points to the U.S.’s efforts to decrease dependence on China.

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On the other hand, Indonesia seems to be playing the overachiever in the group project — showing up early, doing the work, and still getting ghosted. “It’s a surprise,” said Airlangga Hartarto, Indonesia’s chief trade negotiator, as he headed to Washington to meet with U.S. officials. And by surprise, he didn’t mean a pleasant one. Indonesia had bent over backward to play nice — offering to slash tariffs on American goods to nearly zero and even committing to buy $34 billion worth of U.S. products, from Boeing aircraft to soybeans. Just this week, they were in talks with ExxonMobil and American farmers, trying to seal deals faster than you can say "bilateral cooperation." But instead of a thank-you, they got silence. “We have been moving 180 degrees, and the U.S. is not moving at all. Zero,” Hartarto said. “There were a lot of things we had already discussed in detail.” When allies come to the table with open wallets and empty hands, why is the U.S. suddenly playing hard to get?